Base Rate Fallacy
A cognitive bias where people ignore general statistical information in favor of specific information.
19 topics found for
“probability understanding”
Subadditivity Effect
A cognitive bias where the total probability assigned to a set of events is less than the sum of the probabilities assigned to each event individually.
Ratio Bias
A cognitive bias where people judge the likelihood of an event based on its relative size rather than absolute probability.
Conjunction Fallacy
A logical fallacy where people assume that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.
Gambler’s Fallacy
A cognitive bias where individuals believe that past random events affect the probabilities of future random events.
Category Size Bias
A cognitive bias where people judge the likelihood of an event based on the size of its category rather than its actual probability.
Representativeness
Representativeness is a heuristic in decision-making where individuals judge the probability of an event based on how much it resembles a typical case.
Hot Hand Fallacy
The mistaken belief that a person who has experienced success in a random event has a higher probability of further success in additional attempts.
Prospect Theory
A behavioral economic theory that describes how people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known.